A mere eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
